Includes bibliographical references and index

Why do a risk analysis? -- Planning a risk analysis -- The quality of a risk analysis -- Choice of model structure -- Understanding and using the results of a risk analysis -- Probability mathematics and simulation -- Building and running a model -- Some basic random processes -- Data and statistics -- Fitting distributions to data -- Sums of random variables -- Forecasting with uncertainty -- Modelling correlation and dependencies -- Eliciting from expert opinion -- Testing and modelling causal relationships -- Optimisation in risk analysis -- Checking and validating a model -- Discounted cashflow modelling -- Project risk analysis -- Insurance and finance risk analysis modelling -- Microbial food safety risk assessment -- Animal import risk assessment.